Tucson Housing: What I’m Seeing

Approximately half of the active listings in Tucson as of August have had a price cut. With shifting market demands, sellers can be slow to really believe their home is not going to sell in 48 hours, over asking, with competing offers. A lot of my job is trying to get sellers to understand that it is not in their best interest to list high, “just to see”. However, many sellers insist, or turn to another realtor who is willing to list their home higher than what I’d recommend. Those sellers often just have to learn the hard way that pricing aspirationally is no longer a good strategy. These are the sellers that then have to turn around and cut prices after a month or longer with no offers and few showings.

That being said, housing prices are not crashing. There are some sellers who are more motivated than others, and savvy buyers who have some time can look for a good deal- but should not expect homes to sell for half their list price. There are some areas in the country where homes have taken larger hits- but Tucson does not seem to be as inflated.

Yes, I’d say that there is some good leverage for buyers in Tucson right now; however, this doesn’t mean every house is selling under asking price. I’m still seeing bidding wars for homes that are freshly updated and desirable. Homes that aren’t as updated or have been sitting on the market a while are the best targets for buyers looking to get the best deal possible. I’ve helped many buyers get homes for under-asking, as well as concessions, which further reduce the out-of-pocket costs associated with buying a home.

BUT, over the last 30 days, the number of days homes sat on market actually decreased, and the sale-to-list price ratio actually increased. These may be signals that buyers are losing a little leverage.

Compared to the national average, Tucson homes are more affordable to a middle-income household. Nationally, about 21% of active listings are affordable to middle-income earners; in Tucson, our median runs about 30% below that national figure. We are about 35% lower than metropolitan Phoenix, where the median home price is around $475,000.

Probably not this year. Most economists are expecting 30-year fixed mortgage rates to hold about steady. A meaningful drop would require a real economic slowdown, not just one Fed board decision. A buyer waiting for 5% rates could wait through several more listing seasons to get that rate, and even then, they might then be competing with millions of others who might then enter the market.

A motivated buyer now is smart to look at their affordability, and work with their realtor to find sellers motivated to give concessions to buy their rates down now, or reduce their price to something that works for them. If the market were to pick up again, I’d also expect to see fewer sellers willing to give extra cash to buyers to help them close.

I know a lot of people are embarrassed to talk to a professional about what affordability looks like to them, but please be reassured, most of us are used to crunching numbers and helping you get a good picture of things financially. None of us want to have a deal that blows up midway through because a buyer realizes they are in over their heads.

Sellers should price according to what the data tells them- not what an online estimate tells them or what they hope they can get. Do not price for last year- your house will sit on the market and then you will face hard price cuts later. Those cuts are happening at every price point, and across areas of Tucson (including Casas Adobes, the Foothills, and Marana too!) Waiting for the market to catch up to an old number, or hoping you get lucky and have a buyer who doesn’t look at current comps rarely works out. Remember- those buyers are almost always represented by agents who are working the same market and know whether a home is overpriced or not.

I’d also counsel sellers, or potential sellers, to speak with a real estate agent before you are ready to list. There are sometimes decisions that need to be made for which you need very timely and targeted advice, such as whether you should do certain landscaping, undertake a remodel, or how much furniture to remove before listing. A good realtor will be able to guide you and give you approximate numbers for the return on investment.

Oh, and sellers who think they will just leave the projects to the new buyers may be sorely disappointed. Most buyers would rather wait for the listing that has no “projects”.

• Tucson median home price in August 2026: $322,000
• Active listings that have undergone a price cut: 50%
• Average number of days on market: 64, down from 68 in July
• Months of supply: 4.3, down from 4.5 in July
• Sale-to-list price ratio: 98.1%
• Average price per square foot: $215
• Percentage of homes affordable to middle-income buyers nationally: about 21%

I’m seeing a market correcting itself, listing-by-listing. Supply of move-in ready homes in certain price points is low (particularly our mid-range homes), but there are now more and more options nearer the median price point than before. Affordability remains the number one issue for middle-income families, but they may still have some hidden leverage in the market that is worth exploring if they are motivated to purchase a home. Sellers should not expect to list at last year’s prices and sell.