Is Fall a Good Time to Buy in Tucson?

We are finally into the cooler season in Tucson. Although Autumn technically starts in September, we in the desert usually only start getting a break from the heat in late October. With the cooler weather, we also get an influx of returning seasonal residents (aka “snowbirds”); but do the cooler temperatures and those snowbirds also bring a busier real estate market?

One might expect so, and I know that as a realtor I have always been told so. Touring homes becomes significantly more pleasant when the temperatures drop, but looking through nearly six years’ worth of local housing data tells me that there is no uptick in the housing market in Fall. Let’s start by looking at the number of sales, month by month and year by year. (Data taken from MLSSAZ, the Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona.)

You can see the dropoff in sales happen in 2022, then settle into what has been pretty consistent monthly numbers beginning in February/March 2023. It seems to indicate that starting in September of this year, we may be looking at another dropoff in closed deals. The high so far this year came in April, with 1467 homes sold, which was higher than the previous three years’ numbers; but in August and September of this year, we had lower numbers of closed deals than we have had in more than six years. If that trend continues the rest of this fall (and my anecdotal evidence from my own business tells me that it probably will), we have an interesting position for both buyers and sellers.

If the number of closings continues to decline, many sellers are going to have to figure out: (a) if they need to sell or if they are going to pull their listing off the market entirely; (b) what it will take to sell their home; (c) what their competition might be in the coming year.

The market is quite different from the 2008 era of the home pricing crash. Why is that? Well, there are two categories of homeowners who exist today in much greater numbers than existed 20 years ago. These are those who own their homes outright, and there are those who have the “golden handcuffs”. Some 40% of homeowners own their homes outright- a staggering percentage. These homeowners have very little incentive to slash their home prices. If it only costs them a few thousand dollars a year to own their home, why should they listen to a market that says they need to reduce their listing price by tens of thousands of dollars to sell? They are much more likely to just wait it out for a hotter market, potentially pulling the listing altogether. Homeowners with “golden handcuffs” are a different beast. They have great interest rates locked in, meaning their monthly payment is lower than what they might be able to trade for, either in owning or renting. These sellers may be very motivated to sell- perhaps they have an upcoming job relocation, or a divorce, or marriage where they want to combine households. They want a buyer- but they can’t find a buyer willing to pay the price they need to make the move. Many of these sellers have only owned their homes for a few years, and probably bought with a 30-year mortgage, meaning that they may have paid off very little principal, and they therefore aren’t able to slash their home prices. Neither the own-the-home-outright crowd, nor the golden-handcuff crowd are likely to foreclose and walk away. I mention these two categories specifically because many buyers have been sitting out of the market for years now, trying to be ready for the crash that is more than likely never going to happen. You know that meme where it’s got a guy holding money looking at a graph that just goes up, saying, “C’mon, crash already!”. That’s where we are for those buyers.

Other types of sellers are out there, of course, including those sitting on equity and those who have plenty of money or incentive to cut their prices just to sell. It’s not a bad sort of market for a buyer to negotiate in- but you have to know how.

I know, I know- some of you are shouting, “But the interest rates!” Yeah, interest rates are up. Or you might shout, “But the home prices are still way too high!” Well, the market is telling us that sellers don’t have to slash their prices the way that you were hoping they might. Or you might say, “But supply has to go up!” Yeah, but what I’m seeing, a lot of the stagnating supply is made up of homes that are not updated. Most buyers are not interested in buying those. “But if I just wait a little longer, prices are going to crash, right?” Unfortunately, no. And you may well pay rent for another four or five years, rather than starting to build your own equity.

A buyer does well to come up with strategies (or at least to hire a realtor well versed in what is going on in their very local market) to look for homes that might meet their needs, and also to address each type of seller they might encounter. A seller who owns outright might respond well to an emotional statement about how the buyers love the home and might build the same emotional attachment as the sellers have. A seller who bought with an FHA loan might be open to exploring selling to a buyer who will assume his loan. A good realtor can see when the buyer bought and what their interest rate might be- and might be able to sniff out a distressed sale that might take a large price cut. This is the area to really lean into your realtor’s expertise and relationships to find the leverage you need.

The big story is how dramatically the market changed after 2021. In 2021, nearly 20,000 homes sold in the Tucson reporting area. By 2023, annual sales had fallen to approximately 14,000. Since then, sales have remained remarkably consistent:

• 2021: 19,954 closed sales
• 2022: 16,820 closed sales
• 2023: 13,976 closed sales
• 2024: 14,198 closed sales
• 2025: 14,267 closed sales

Through September 2026, Tucson recorded 10,998 closed sales, nearly identical to the same period in 2024 and 2025. Higher mortgage rates and overall inflation/affordability challenges have changed the market significantly from 2021. But rather than continuing to decline year after year, transaction activity has largely stabilized. This matters because a slower market doesn’t necessarily mean crashing. Sales volume, home prices, and available inventory tell the actual story.

Potentially, yes, and this year, absolutely yes. With fewer homes going under contract in September than in spring, there is less overall purchasing activity. Right now, there are still homes that attract considerable interest, and they tend to be homes that are updated and priced-to-sell. Other properties, particularly those needing updates or carrying ambitious asking prices, are sitting on the market longer. For buyers this year, the opportunity is in knowing which homes have competition and which don’t, and knowing that even within this market, there is a huge range of what’s available and how it’s priced. Sellers, by and large, are slower to recognize that their home values have dropped in the last few years and that they cannot sell their un-updated homes in 48 hours to multiple bidders. A handful of sellers are realistic, but there are a lot out there who are not. So, to find a good deal, it usually requires looking at individual properties, rather than relying on broad market averages. If you look at number of days on market, as well as number of price reductions, you might be able to hone in on a property that is just waiting for any interested buyer to start negotiating.

This is a great question to ask, and I’d say, probably yes. A homeowner who listed in spring and still hasn’t sold by October may be reconsidering their asking price, particularly if they’re carrying the expenses of an empty property or have already purchased another home. This could create opportunities to negotiate a price reduction, closing cost assistance, repairs, or even a mortgage rate buydown. Remember, not every seller is in that position. Some have little financial pressure, and no particular deadline. But most have some reason they’d really like to sell- they listed it after all! The number of homes sold each month doesn’t tell us how much negotiating power buyers have. Examine the number of days on market, any price reductions, the competing inventory, and how much difference is appearing between the market’s asking and final selling prices. And we as humans often also want closure before the end of a calendar year- so I say, take a shot! To summarize, a slower season often creates negotiating opportunities, but it does not guarantee them.

By October, a Tucson home has been through another summer and monsoon season. That provides buyers with useful information about how the property has been maintained and if it has made it through another season of 100+ degree temperatures and heavier rains. As a realtor, I know one of the best times to tour a home is during or just after a rain storm- any roof leaks, stucco damage, or poor drainage issues in the landscaping should become evident quickly. These things can help buyers ask better questions and make more informed decisions.

If you’re considering buying a home, waiting for spring may mean more new listings to choose from. Tucson’s new listings tend to be stronger in the early part of the year than in November and December. But waiting also means making assumptions about what mortgage rates, home prices, and competing buyer activity will look like several months from now. We just don’t know what those will be, so there are risks involved. Instead, I’d encourage buyers to consider three questions:

1. What would buying cost me today? Look beyond the asking price. Consider the down payment, closing costs, mortgage payment, and any concessions that might be negotiated.
2. Are there homes available that actually meet my needs? A great buying opportunity isn’t particularly valuable if the available homes don’t fit your lifestyle, location, or financial goals.
3. What would have to change to make waiting worthwhile? Lower interest rates? More inventory? A different monthly payment? Understanding those numbers can make decisions easier. If the answer is in the monthly payment, make sure to run numbers by your realtor and lender to make sure you are dealing with real numbers, not just fear-mongering headlines of interest rates which don’t translate well into real numbers. A good lender and realtor can make sure everyone is on the same page with what your monthly number would be as a buyer- making sure incentives, buydowns, out-of-pocket expenses all align with your needs.

Tucson’s housing market doesn’t experience the fall resurgence that people sometimes assume comes with cooler weather and snowbirds. Historical data shows that Spring is generally our strongest season, while activity tends to taper off toward the end of the year. But that doesn’t mean buyers should automatically wait for Spring. The slower pace may provide time to evaluate properties carefully and negotiate favorable terms. Other buyers may benefit from waiting for additional inventory. The important thing is understanding the market within your price range and preferred neighborhoods, along with your own circumstances. Real estate decisions should be based on good information, not assumptions about the perfect time of year to buy. If you’ve been thinking about buying a home in Tucson but aren’t sure whether the timing makes sense, I’m happy to help you look at the numbers. We can evaluate current listings, estimated monthly payments, and negotiating opportunities so you can decide if this is the season to buy in or not.

MLSSAZ Monthly Market Reports, Tucson Association of REALTORS® reporting area, 2021–September 2026. Figures exclude the separately reported Green Valley/Sahuarita association area. Recent monthly counts are subject to revision.